Monday, December 21, 2009

Prince Charles: The sun king of Britain!

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He's known as a faithful advocate for the environment and now it seems that Prince Charles is all set to become the future "sun king".

Yes, the heir apparent to Britain, who has gone to the extent of auditing his own carbon footprint in public, is placing solar panels on the rooftops of his Clarence House to generate his own electricity for heating and lighting.

In fact, Charles has already called in experts to see how the photovoltaic panels could be fitted onto the existing tiles on the 180-year-old Royal mansion without spoiling its historic look, `The Sunday Times' reported.

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Thursday, May 22, 2008

End of NICE decade is rude shock for investors:James Saft

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The demise of the NICE decade of low inflation and steady growth, mourned by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, means tough times are ahead for most financial assets.

Calling it the "most difficult challenge yet" for Britain's 11-year-old Monetary Policy Committee, King last week declared the decade of non-inflationary consistent expansion (NICE) over and done, as tight credit and rising inflation force a rebalancing from consumption and borrowing to production and savings.

That is bad news for King and Britain, as the bank will have little freedom to ease the economy's transition by lowering interest rates.

But it will be bad news for financial markets as well, and not just in Britain. Inflation and economic growth will be choppier and less predictable, and so therefore will be company profits.

And if there is one thing investors hate, quite rightly, it is unpredictability. They will react, almost mechanically, to this new volatility by demanding an extra risk premium for holding stocks and bonds.

That extra premium implies, all other things being equal, lower prices for the same earnings power in a stock or a bond.

"We are at the start of the decade of great instability for both real economies and asset markets," said Lena Komileva, an economist and strategist at brokerage Tullett Prebon in London.

"At a time when the cost of finance is decided in asset markets, outside the control of central banks, increased macroeconomic instability and rising asset price volatility as a result will compound the effects of the credit crunch.

"With cheap leverage no longer available, an adverse macroeconomic environment will make the correction of asset valuations in line with real fundamentals that much more painful."

The NICE decade is a manifestation of the broader phenomenon that economists have dubbed the Great Moderation.

Since the 1980s the economies of the West, led by the United States, have enjoyed fewer and less severe downturns, a period characterized above all by less volatility in the economy both in terms of growth and inflation.

There has been a lot of debate about what caused such an extended period of predictability, but what is clear is that the benefits have been huge. It has made it easier for governments, companies and individuals to plan their investment and consumption.

It has also probably contributed to a fall in savings in the English speaking economies, as rainy days have been few and far between.

All that seems to be changing.

THE HIGH VALUE OF PREDICTABILITY

If the Great Moderation is on the way out, investors will simply have to get used to more volatility.

To get a sense of how important this is, look at the premium investors paid for General Electric shares during its period of steady earnings expansion. Or conversely, look at the very low multiple of earnings shareholders are willing to pay to hold investment banking shares, which historically experience huge volatility in earnings.

And though Britain has gone longer without a recession, there is no doubt that the United States has also benefited from low and stable inflation and is now seeing rising inflationary pressure.

More than 20 percent of Britons polled in a survey by the Bank of England and GFK expect inflation to rise by five percent or more in the next year.

In the United States, the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment, released on Friday, showed that median year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5.2 percent in May from 4.8 percent in April, the highest since the dark days of February 1982, when inflation was raging and the Great Moderation just a gleam in Paul Volcker's eye.

The latest bout of inflation is being caused by skyrocketing prices for agricultural commodities and energy. And whereas emerging markets like China were only one or two years ago supplying disinflation to the west through competition and cheap manufactured goods, these countries are now themselves in the grip of rising wages as well as commodity prices, making them a source of inflation.

Russell Jones, a fixed income strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London, thinks that rising volatility won't just hit asset prices across the board.

"Volatility also heightens risk aversion as well," he said. "People are frightened off by volatility and they will keep their money in less risky asset."

Jones thinks Britain faces a period he characterizes as "evil," for Exacting period of Volatile Inflation and Low growth.

Quite possibly it won't be that bad, but two things are reasonably sure: central banks will not have the same freedom to lower rates they have used in the past to dampen economic volatility, and investors will have to grapple with the costs.

At the time of publication James Saft did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. He may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Vodafone scores first deal to sell Apple's iPhone

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Mobile phone group Vodafone scored its first deal to sell Apple Inc's iPhone after the UK group lost out to Telefonica's O2 to sell it in Britain.

Vodafone, the world's largest mobile phone company by revenue, has been competing with operators and retailers to secure the right to sell the iPhone the touch-screen device which combines Apple's popular iPod music player, a video player and Web browser. Vodafone will sell the iPhone in 10 countries.

O2 has described the device as a star performer which draws increased numbers of customers into its stores.

Customers using the phone have also driven up data revenues by surfing the Internet and sending emails, a key attraction to operators as the cost of making calls decreases.

"Later this year, Vodafone customers in Australia, the Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Italy, India, Portugal, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey will be able to purchase the iPhone for use on the Vodafone network," the British-based firm said in a statement without giving any more details.

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Friday, April 25, 2008

Forty years on, abortion battle rages in Britain

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Pro choice campaigners mark 40 years of legal abortion in Britain next week, but say their hard-won right is under pressure from pro life activists trying to lower the 24-week limit for the termination of pregnancy.

Passionate debate over the ethics of aborting healthy babies preceded the Abortion Act that came into force in Britain in April 1968, and the issue is still hotly contested by the two sides.

"I used to and still occasionally do get lunatic letters comparing me to Herod and Hitler," David Steel, the parliamentarian who introduced the Act, told Reuters.

Forty years after Steel saw the Act become law, Britain's parliament is again besieged by activists -- one group determined to stop what it sees as the barbaric murder of innocents, the other fiercely defending what it says is women's right to manage their own lives.

"The Abortion Act and its enactment was an historic advance for women," said Louise Hutchins, campaign director for the Abortion Rights group. "It ended the days of backstreet abortion with thousands of women being killed and many thousands more being injured and maimed for the rest of their lives.

"Not only that, it also allowed an incredible advancement in women's economic, social and educational position in society by giving them basic control over their lives."

Russia was the first country to legalize abortion in 1920, according to the World Health Organisation -- although the law was repealed in 1936 and abortion remained illegal until 1955. Iceland was the first west European country to legalize abortion, in 1935.

TIME LIMIT

Many European countries allow abortion on demand up to 12 or 13 weeks into pregnancy, after which it is limited to cases where the baby or mother is at risk. It is legal up to 22-24 weeks of pregnancy in Spain, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

Britain's law originally allowed abortions up to 28 weeks after conception as long as two doctors agreed, but the upper limit was reduced to 24 weeks in 1990.

Pro-life campaigners, arguing that the upper limit should be reassessed, plan to table a series of amendments to a human fertilization bill going through parliament next month, seeking a reduction to 20 weeks, 18 weeks, or even lower.

One of the strongest influences on the debate has been the release of groundbreaking three-dimensional moving images produced by Professor Stuart Campbell, an obstetrics specialist and a pioneer of ultrasound fetal diagnosis.

His video clips and photographs clearly show fetuses as young as 16 weeks sucking their thumbs, yawning and demonstrating behavior which suggests they are far more developed at this stage than was previously thought.

"I was astonished at how complex the fetus is," Campbell told Reuters. "The pattern of behavior of its arms and its hands shows that it is just learning spatial awareness and about its surroundings."

"Of course I don't believe that this is at a cerebral level -- it is not an intelligent being at that time -- but its reflex patterns of behavior are preparing it for future life."

Steel says he found the pictures arresting, but says he, like the majority of the medical and scientific community in Britain, believes the 24-week time limit should be upheld.

As a young politician Steel witnessed an abortion, knowing he would face criticism if he did not. It was "not a pleasant procedure to contemplate", he says, but "I don't think seeing it carried out altered my views at all."

"BARBARIC" OR "INFLAMMATORY"?

Opinion polls show that around three-quarters of Britons support a woman's right to an abortion in the first three months of pregnancy, and those who support a 24-week limit include the British Medical Association, the Royal College of Nurses and the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.

As many as 200,000 women have abortions each year in Britain and the number is rising. Around 30 percent of British women will have had an abortion by the time they are 45 years old.

According to Campbell, as many as 2,300 of the 3,000 pregnancies terminated each year at between 20 and 24 weeks are normal babies likely to be born with no complications.

He says he believes strongly in a woman's right to safe and legal abortion but insists that 20 weeks -- half-way through a normal pregnancy -- allows enough time to make such a decision.

From then on "two thirds of them will be removed by gynecological evacuation", he said. "The woman is anaesthetized, the cervix is dilated -- which is dangerous in itself -- and then the baby is absolutely dismembered, decapitated usually, as it is removed.

"These are beautiful creatures. They are rapidly developing all the skills necessary to survive. And at 20 weeks I think it's right to say we are not going to rip these babies out and dismember them. For a civilized society, I think it's extraordinary that we allow that. It's quite barbaric."

Pro-choice activists say such arguments are inflammatory and irresponsible. They say women who have abortions in later stages of a pregnancy are often in desperate circumstances, maybe having lost a partner through death or separation, or suffering from domestic violence or poverty.

"For people to use that kind of language and judge women when they are making often very difficult decisions is unhelpful," said Hutchins.

"It's inflammatory and it doesn't help women come to a considered decision about their pregnancy and the entire rest of their lives. To bring a child into the world with all the responsibility that that carries is a decision that only the woman is in the best position to take."

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